Methodology

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The project will be implemented through the following tasks:

Task 1 (months 1-12): The experimental models of tectonic faults are based on the main observation that earthquakes are generated especially from the sudden slip between the two planes of an existing fault. A peculiar feature of such processes is that the sudden motion joint to an accumulated stress release starts only when the stress reaches a critical threshold value. Such earthquake generation mechanism is called “stick-slip”. In this task the Mexican team will be mainly involved in refining the experimental “stick-slip” model (constituted by an aluminium block pulled by a motor with constant velocity, slipping on an aluminium plane, whose block inferior surface and plane superior surface are coated by sandpapers with various graininess degrees), and in the implementation of the laboratory experiments. The Mexican group will be involved in the technical installation of the laboratory, carrying out of the experiments and collection of the experimental data. The model, even if so simple, mimics the fundamental “stick-slip” mechanism of generation of earthquakes. Experiments with different graininess degrees between the two contact surfaces, different values of the block’s mass and motor’s velocity will be carried out in order to have the as many cases as possible to study.

Task 2 (months 13-18): Both the research teams will perform pre-processing of all the experimental data obtained from the laboratory experiments carried out by the Mexican group. The pre-processing will consist in the construction of synthetic series of seismic events. The transformation between the displacement of the block and the magnitude of the generated synthetic associated seismic event. A catalog of synthetic seismic events will be constructed having the same temporal and energetic characteristics of a real earthquake catalog.

Task 3 (months 1-18): The Italia team will refine the advanced statistical techniques of time series analysis (fractal, multifractal, entropic, ect.) based of the recent non-extensive, “natural time domain”, and “visibility graph”, only marginally applied to some cases of real seismicity. In particular software packages will be developed (in fortran, Matlab, etc.) with the statistical methodologies that will be applied to the laboratory series collected by the Mexican group; such software will be available to both the research teams. The integration of such advanced statistical techniques and their application to the series of synthetic earthquakes will contribute to better define the dynamics of mechanisms of earthquake generation and to validate the experimental model implemented by the Mexican group.

Task 4 (months 19-36): The same techniques developed in Task 3 will be applied to the series of seismicity produced in laboratory as well as to real seismicity in particular areas of Mexico and Italy, aiming at studying their dynamics and finding universal laws valid for both the experimental as well as real seismicity cases.